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IGC Estimates 2014 World Rice Trade at Record 40 Million Tons;

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From: (2014-07-03)

The International Grains Council (IGC) has estimated 2014 world rice trade at a record 40 million tons, up about 5% from 38 million tons in 2013 due to increased imports by Far East Asian and African countries.

The IGC expects total rice imports by Far East Asian countries including Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia, China and the Philippines, to increase to around 12.5 million tons, up about 19% from around 10.5 million tons last year. It expects China to remain largest importer in 2014 with 3.1 million tons. The IGC expects Indonesia and the Philippines to increase imports to 1.4 million tons and 1.9 million tons respectively to ensure adequate supplies. It estimates shipments to sub-Saharan Africa at 14.6 million tons. While Nigeria's imports are forecasted to increase about 15% to around 3.1 million tons from last year's 2.7 million tons, imports of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal and South Africa are expected to be above average.

On the exports side, the IGC estimates India to export around 9.7 million tons of rice, about 8% lower than around 10.54 million tons exported last year mainly due to increased sales by Thailand. It estimates Thailand's rice exports to increase to around 9.2 million tons of rice this year, but expects Vietnam's rice exports to decline to around 6.3 million tons from last year's 6.7 million tons.

The IGC estimates 2013-14 global rice output at around 476 million tons, up about 1% from around 472 million tons in 2012-13 mainly due to improved harvests in India, Vietnam and Pakistan. It expects global rice consumption in 2013-14 to increase to around 476 million tons, up about 2% from around 472 million tons in 2012-13 due to expected increased consumption in India, China, Brazil and sub-Saharan Africa.

The Council expects world rice ending stocks in 2013-14 to decline to around 109 million tons from around 110 million tons in the previous year. It expects inventories of major rice exporters to decline slightly to around 39.4 million tons from around 39.9 million tons last year mainly due to higher stock depletion in India and Thailand.

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